Andy's Weekly Thoughts: Who Could We See At The Next Second Chance?

They Led A Superchamp Entering Final Jeopardy

The following three players all were leading, or were tied with, a superchamp entering Final Jeopardy, and I also believe this status potentially trumps any statistical considerations.

• Dominex Kovacs: led Jamie Ding entering Final Jeopardy on April 8 before an incorrect response in Final led to Jamie's victory;

• Helen Yoas: In Tristan Williams's second game (which I believe will be coming up very soon in the weekend rerun), Helen led Tristan entering Final Jeopardy, but an incorrect response in Final Jeopardy that day ended her chances of victory.

• Robert Yan: In the same game as Helen, Robert was tied with Tristan Williams entering Final Jeopardy, and was correct, but did not bet enough. Just on statistics alone, though (38 net attempts, 19 correct, $12,200 Coryat), Robert would also be part of the "good statistical case" below.

Players With The Best Statistical Case

These players, I think, have the best statistical case to return in Second Chance—as we've seen in past years, though, this is by no means a guarantee that someone will see an invite.

• Eli Selzer (42 net attempts, 25 correct, $18,000 Coryat): Eli's stat line is no worse than 6^th in any of the five categories, leads all contenders in correct responses, is 2^nd in both Unified Prediction Model metrics, and is third in Coryat. His performance against Libby Jones on December 2 should make him a shoo-in for Second Chance.

• Luke Minton (45 net attempts, 22 correct, $14,400 Coryat): Coming off the game where Jamie Ding set the all-time single-game Coryat Score record, Luke managed to keep Jamie from a runaway in Game #4. His stat line, as you can see above, was also very strong.

• Patrick Nolan (34 net attempts, 19 correct, $17,600 Coryat): Jamie Ding was taken to the brink in Game #30, as Patrick put up $28,000 entering Final Jeopardy. 

• Max Genecov (41 net attempts, 22 correct, $16,800 Coryat): A missed Daily Double kept Max from having a score north of $20,000 entering Final, but his "counting stats" combined should be enough to see a return to the Alex Trebek Stage.

• Amber Born (38 net attempts, 24 correct, $13,800 Coryat): A correct response in Final Jeopardy would have ended Caleb Groen's run quite early; Amber's performance also generated a lot of Facebook buzz on both sides. (Not that it interrupted my golf trip or anything that weekend to have to delete comments from disrespectful people.)

• Matt Davis (39 net attempts, 22 correct, $15,600 Coryat): Matt's "counting stats" were all quite strong, espectially compared to many others, which means I think he has a good chance of returning.

• Eddie Kass (40 net attempts, 21 correct, $18,200 Coryat): Eddie was leading ToCer Will Riley entering Final Jeopardy, despite a pair of incorrect Daily Doubles. From there, an incorrect response in Final Jeopardy dashed his hopes of victory.

• Rose Sloan (33 net attempts, 20 correct, $14,200 Coryat): Rose had nearly $10,000 after 30 clues against Tristan Williams in Tristan's 10^th game; between that, her Coryat, and her correct response numbers, I think I could definitely see her returning.

• Gil Hamel (38 net attempts, 22 correct, $13,000 Coryat): Gil might have had victory with a different bet in Final Jeopardy, but as much as I'm loath to mention that, her counting stats in a losing effort should see a return to the Alex Trebek Stage.

• Jenna Lafleur (39 net attempts, 18 correct, $14,600 Coryat): Jenna put up a very strong performance against Will Riley, and while a number of statistical performances outshone her later in the season, I think her numbers are still enough to see an invitation.

• Rachel Bernstein (38 net attempts, 18 correct, $13,000 Coryat): Sure, Harrison Whitaker did have a runaway game here, but Rachel's counting stats here were overall very strong. Given different opposition, she might be able to be pretty good at this game.

• Kate Raven (35 net attempts, 16 correct, $13,600 Coryat): Sure, Kate was in third place entering Final Jeopardy. But as you'll see below, both Kate and Derek Lombardi might have a good case to return from their June 25^th game against Adam Remsen. (Adam's 10^th win).

Players With A Good Statistical Case

These players don't quite have stats as good as the above, but I still think many of these players have compelling cases to possibly return.

• Andy Briseño: 43 net attempts, 18 correct, $12,200 Coryat in Caleb Groen's first game.

• Devin Weinberg: 35 net attempts, 22 correct, $12,400 Coryat in Matthew Riggle's second game.

• Tyler Stevenson: 39 net attempts, 20 correct, $13,600 Coryat in Adam Remsen's fifth game.

• Derek Lombardi: 31 net attempts, 17 correct, $11,400 Coryat (and $7,400 from Daily Doubles) in Adam Remsen's tenth game.

• Taotao Zhang: 40 net attempts, 17 correct, $13,200 Coryat in Jamie Ding's 26^th game.

• Taylor A'Latorre: 38 net attempts, 18 correct, $12,800 Coryat in Caleb Groen's fifth game.

• J.R. Scott: 30 net attempts, 19 correct, $13,000 Coryat in Chris D'Angelo's sixth game.

• David Ley: 26 net attempts, 17 correct, $10,400 Coryat (and $7,200 from Daily Doubles) in Jamie Ding's sixth game. 

• Alejandro Sobalvarro: 29 net attempts, 16 correct, $11,400 Coryat (and $6,600 from Daily Doubles) in Peter McFerrin's sixth game.

• Jacqueline Ziegler: 38 net attempts, 19 correct, $12,200 Coryat in Matthew Riggle's first game. (Despite being third entering Final Jeopardy in that game.)

• Christa Fidel: 33 net attempts, 15 correct, $15,600 Coryat in James Hirsh's first game. (Again, despite entering Final Jeopardy in third place.)

• Kevin Kodama: 31 net attempts, 22 correct $20,200 Coryat in James Hirsh's second game. (Kevin lost $15,200 on a late Daily Double.)

• Robin Richardson: 32 net attempts, 17 correct, $10,000 Coryat in Jamie Ding's first game.

• Jessica Davis: 40 net attempts, 15 correct, $10,600 Coryat in Caleb Groen's fourth game.

• Pranit Nanda: 31 net attempts, 13 correct, $11,800 Coryat in Jamie Ding's eighth game.

• Sapana Vora: 34 net attempts, 17 correct, $11,400 Coryat in James Denison's third game.

• Kara Brown: 30 net attempts, 18 correct, $13,400 Coryat in Harrison Whitaker's eighth game.

• Anne Benjaminson: 31 net attempts, 18 correct, $9,600 Coryat in Tristan Williams's seventh game

• Jordan Haynie Ware: 19 net attempts, 12 correct, $10,000 Coryat (7 net high-value responses + $5,000 on Daily Doubles), preventing Jamie Ding from having a runaway in Jamie's fifth game.

• Heidi Schmechel: 23 net attempts, 14 correct, $10,400 Coryat (plus $3,000 in Daily Doubles) in James Denison's first game.

• Tallulah Pollard: 43 net attempts, 13 correct, $7,200 Coryat in Jamie Ding's ninth game.

• Marissa Klein: 33 net attempts, 17 correct, $11,600 Coryat; Marissa was the first player in show history to have 3 incorrect True Daily Doubles in the same game. I think that's probably enough of a distinction to see an invitation here, but the show may see things differently.

Is Having To Play Against Two ToCers Enough?

On June 1, Camryn Bell put up a $10,200 Coryat score in a game between a pair of ToC qualifiers in Chris D'Angelo and Peter McFerrin. I could see the show inviting Camryn back, especially if it puts significantly more weight on "strength of schedule" than I currently do.

I can't bring up Camryn without at least mentioning Allegra Rosenberg; again, the show could weight strength of schedule highly enough to bring Allegra back, but I just don't think that her performance was strong enough, in spite of her opposition, to see a return.

Astroturfing My Facebook Comments

In late May and early June, a number of Ariel Epstein supporters began flooding my Facebook comments section, suggesting that Ariel be considered for Second Chance.

Ariel's stat line (31 net attempts, 13 correct, 7,200 Coryat Score) placed her 117^th of the 230 nonwinning players this past season. I would say she has zero statistical case and not much of a compelling story to warrant a return to the Alex Trebek Stage at this time.