Wagering Strategy 102: Betting In 2-Day Finals
Make sure to check out Wagering Strategy 101: How To Bet In Final Jeopardy! as well!
Preamble
I originally published most of this guide in May 2012, shortly after becoming part of the writing team here at The Jeopardy! Fan. However, with the preponderance of two-game total-point matches in modern Jeopardy, I think elevating this guide up to “page” status is important.
The math is more difficult, and the stakes (in both glory and money) are higher. Thus, it’s important to have practiced this beforehand! Mistakes have been made here, even by some of the best players in the show’s history.
What’s Happening?
In a two-game total-point final, the final scores after Game 1 are locked in. Then, scores are reset to zero for the start of Game 2, and at the conclusion of Game 2, Game 1’s scores are added back. This makes the math more difficult than you’re used to, because you have an earlier game to take into account!
Day 1’s Final Jeopardy
This is pretty simple: Because there are still 61 clues to play after this, there’s still an opportunity to make up for anything lost. Thus, I would bet this as if it was a Daily Double that all three players get to play.
I should also note that Final Jeopardy clues do tend to be slightly more difficult than Daily Doubles in-game; I would definitely adjust your bet sizing accordingly, thinking that the clue would be more difficult than a regular Daily Double.
Day 2’s Final Jeopardy
Here’s where it gets fun and interesting. Because the math is more difficult, I will explain everything from “first principles” (if you’ll excuse the calculus term here). Much like “Wagering 101”, I’d recommend practicing until you figure everything out within 4 minutes or less.
Example 1: 2000 Tournament of Champions Final
Using the 2000 Tournament of Champions final as my first example, I will walk through a couple of situations.
The scores after Day 1:
Robin Carroll $8,000
Jeremy Bate $7,000
Steve Fried $4,500
The scores going into Final Jeopardy on Day 2:
Robin Carroll $4,600
Jeremy Bate $1,500
Steve Fried $7,000
Your first step should be to figure out who has the advantage.
To determine who can win with a correct response and a sufficient wager, double everybody’s Day 2 score and then add that to their Day 1 score.
In our example:
Robin: 4,600 * 2 = 9,200 + 8,000 = 17,200
Jeremy: 1,500 * 2 = 3,000 + 7,000 = 10,000
Steve: 7,000 * 2 = 14,000 + 4,500 = 18,500
In this example, Steve controls his destiny.
Additionally, you should determine if the player with the advantage has a runaway. Add that player’s Day 1 and Day 2 scores together to do this. The leader has a runaway if it’s more than second place’s doubled score. If it’s not, then there is no runaway.
In this example:
Steve: 7,000 + 4,500 = 11,500; that is less than Robin’s 17,200; thus, he does not have a runaway.
Your next priority should be to determine the leader’s optimum wager. This should be the wager that wins the tournament by $1 if everybody answers correctly and the two trailing players bet everything.
Therefore, Steve should wager to ensure that his two-day total is $17,201.
To arrive at this wager, take that target total, subtract your first-day total, and then subtract your current score going into Final Jeopardy.
Therefore, Steve’s optimum wager is:
17,201 – 4,500 = 12,701 – 7,000 = 5,701
From here, the other two players must realize that the only way to lose is if the leader misses Final Jeopardy. Therefore, they should wager to best take advantage of this situation after ensuring they have covered any player behind them.
As Robin is in second place, she must assume that Steve will miss and Jeremy will get the question correct and wager everything.
In our situation, if Steve misses Final Jeopardy, he will fall to:
7,000 – 5,701 = 1,299 + 4,500 = 5,799
This bodes well for Robin, as her Day 1 total is 8,000. However, she still needs to worry about Jeremy behind her.
If Robin wagers nothing, her score sits at:
4,600 + 0 = 4,600 + 8,000 = 12,600
This is higher than Jeremy’s maximum possible total of $10,000. Therefore, Robin needs to ensure her score does not fall below $10,001.
If you can’t afford to fall below a certain number, arrive at it as follows: Take the score you would finish with if you wagered nothing and subtract the target score. Robin’s optimum wager is:
12,600 – 10,001 = 2,599
In Jeremy’s situation, he can only win if Robin makes a wagering blunder. As most wagering blunders from second-placed contestants consist of wagering either everything or nearly everything, Jeremy should wager to make certain he does not fall behind Robin’s score from the first game. A good target score for Jeremy would be $8,001 (though wagering $0 in this situation is also quite defensible).
Jeremy’s optimum wager is calculated the same as Robin’s:
1,500 + 0 = 1,500 + 7,000 = 8,500 – 8,001 = 499
In summary, the thought process should be:
Determine who is leading by doubling everybody’s second-day scores and adding that total to the first day.
Determine what the leader’s optimum wager is.
Determine the 2nd-place player’s optimum wager based on the score of 3rd place and the leader’s wager.
Determine what the trailer’s optimum wager is based on the wagers of the players ahead.
One important note: Bet the maximum amount you can without jeopardizing your chances of victory in this situation. This may work in your favor if the player in front of you makes a mathematical error.
Returning to our example, here’s what the players wagered:
Robin: $4,600
Jeremy: $1,500
Steve: $5,701
And here’s how the tournament turned out:
Robin: $4,600 – $4,600 = $0 + $8,000 = $8,000
Jeremy: $1,500 – $1,500 = $0 + $7,000 = $7,000
Steve: $7,000 – $5,701 = $1,299 + $4,500 = $5,799
Here’s how the tournament would have turned out with optimum wagers:
Robin: $4,600 – $2,599 = $2,001 + $8,000 = $10,001
Jeremy: $1,500 – $499 = $1,001 + $7,000 = $8,001
Steve: $7,000 – $5,701 = $1,299 + $4,500 = $5,799
Steve was the only player of the three to wager properly. Holding everything else constant, Jeremy would have won the tournament had he wagered less. Robin was very lucky that her wagering blunder did not come back to haunt her.