Strategy Talk: Seth Wilson’s Bet Tonight Wasn’t As Bad As You Think

Current Champion

Nikolas Polsinelli, career statistics:
44 correct, 6 incorrect
2/2 on rebound attempts (on 5 rebound opportunities)
35.96% in first on buzzer (41/114)
4/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $10,600)
1/2 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $17,500

To win:
3 games: 64.111%
4: 41.102%
5: 26.351%
6: 16.894%
7: 10.831%
Avg. streak: 3.786 games.
(Click Here for Methodology)

Upcoming Encore Presentations

October 3-4: S42 E175 (May 8, 2026)
October 10-11: S42 E176 (May 11, 2026)
(Source: Bell Fibe TV program guide)

All Time Winnings

All Time Jeopardy! Winnings, Regular Play Only:

1. Ken Jennings $2,520,700
2. James Holzhauer $2,462,216
3. Matt Amodio $1,518,601
4. Amy Schneider $1,382,800
5. Jamie Ding $882,605
6. Cris Pannullo $748,286
7. Mattea Roach $560,983
8. Jason Zuffranieri $532,496
9. Scott Riccardi $455,000
10. David Madden $430,400
11. Julia Collins $428,100
12. Matt Jackson $411,612
13. Austin Rogers $411,000
14. Ray Lalonde $386,400
15. Harrison Whitaker $373,999
16. Adriana Harmeyer $349,600
17. Caleb Groen $346,968
18. Adam Remsen $306,415
19. Ryan Long $299,400
20. Arthur Chu $297,200

All Time Jeopardy! Winnings, Including Tournaments (and Consolation Prizes):

1. Brad Rutter $4,968,436
2. Ken Jennings $4,372,700
3. James Holzhauer $3,614,216
4. Matt Amodio $1,964,601
5. Amy Schneider $1,864,800
6. Yogesh Raut $1,598,403
7. Victoria Groce $1,023,801
8. Mattea Roach $897,983
9. Jamie Ding $885,605
10. David Madden $785,733
11. Cris Pannullo $754,286
12. Roger Craig $706,200
13. Andrew He $684,365
14. Larissa Kelly $671,930
15. Matt Jackson $623,612
16. Jason Zuffranieri $549,496
17. Paolo Pasco $548,717
18. Scott Riccardi $533,000
19. Jerome Vered $499,102
20. Julia Collins $495,767
21. Austin Rogers $493,000
22. Juveria Zaheer $491,000
23. Ben Ingram $449,201
24. Adriana Harmeyer $446,600
25. Buzzy Cohen $441,603

If you were watching tonight’s Jeopardy!, you saw the defeat of Seth Wilson to Margie Eulner Ott after Seth bet just $5 in Final Jeopardy.

In case you missed it, the scores were:
Seth $19,000
Margie $17,000
Eric $1,800

The conventional wisdom in this sort of situation is to make the “standard cover” wager, in this case, $15,001. But how does Seth’s bet of $5 stack up?

Thankfully, because of the exhaustiveness of the data sitting at J! Archive, it is actually possible to quantify the winning percentage of each bet.

The conventional bet of $15,001 wins in the following cases:
1) Seth gets Final Jeopardy! correct; or,
2) Both Seth and Margie miss Final Jeopardy, and Margie over-wagers.

(An “over-wager” is defined here as a bet that loses a double-stumper between the two leaders).

The $5 bet (or even a $2 bet wins in the following cases):
1) Margie misses Final Jeopardy; or,
2) Margie underbets (less than the difference between 1st and 2nd); or,
3) Margie bets to take the lead by $1, and Seth gets Final Jeopardy correct.

Here are the numbers:
From the start of Season 31 to this point of Season 33:
Leaders are 52.63% in Final;
2nd place is incorrect 54.73% of the time;

Dating back to 2001 in regular play, and in four-fifths games:
2nd place “over-wagers” 47.91% of the time (390/814);
2nd place bets to take the lead by $1 5.53% of the time (45/814);
2nd place underbets (less than the difference between 1st and 2nd) 4.91% of the time (40/814).

Doing the calculations:
Big ($15,001):
Win if:
Correct (52.63%)
or both wrong & 2nd overbets (29.05% * 47.91% = 13.92%)
Chances: 66.55%

Small ($2):
Win if:
2nd incorrect (54.73%)
or 2nd underbets (4.91%)
or right and second bets to take lead by $1 (5.53% * 52.63% = 2.91%)
Chances: 62.55%

So, this bet, on its surface, lowers Seth’s winning chances slightly in this specific game.

However, an astute opponent waiting in the audience may notice Seth’s propensity to make a small bet and may make a sub-optimal wager in the future in light of this information, leading to a greater chance of victory down the round.

Due to the possibility of a heightened victory chance of future game cancelling out any lessened chances in this game, it is my conclusion that Seth’s $5 bet is far from any sort of egregious blunder, but a simple gambit that in this specific case failed to work out. Unfortunately, it ended a great streak at 12 games, but I applaud Seth’s willingness to take this chance. We’ll see him again, I’m sure, in the Tournament of Champions.