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Strategy Talk: Seth Wilson’s Bet Tonight Wasn’t As Bad As You Think

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Current Champion

Matthew Riggle, career statistics:
47 correct, 6 incorrect
1/1 on rebound attempts (on 4 rebound opportunities)
41.23% in first on buzzer (47/114)
3/3 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $7,600)
1/2 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $21,300

To win:
3 games: 68.027%
4: 46.277%
5: 31.481%
6: 21.415%
7: 14.568%
Avg. streak: 4.128 games.
(Next game: September 14)
(Click Here for Methodology)

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If you were watching tonight’s Jeopardy!, you saw the defeat of Seth Wilson to Margie Eulner Ott after Seth bet just $5 in Final Jeopardy.

In case you missed it, the scores were:
Seth $19,000
Margie $17,000
Eric $1,800

The conventional wisdom in this sort of situation is to make the “standard cover” wager, in this case, $15,001. But how does Seth’s bet of $5 stack up?

Thankfully, because of the exhaustiveness of the data sitting at J! Archive, it is actually possible to quantify the winning percentage of each bet.

The conventional bet of $15,001 wins in the following cases:
1) Seth gets Final Jeopardy! correct; or,
2) Both Seth and Margie miss Final Jeopardy, and Margie over-wagers.

(An “over-wager” is defined here as a bet that loses a double-stumper between the two leaders).

The $5 bet (or even a $2 bet wins in the following cases):
1) Margie misses Final Jeopardy; or,
2) Margie underbets (less than the difference between 1st and 2nd); or,
3) Margie bets to take the lead by $1, and Seth gets Final Jeopardy correct.

Here are the numbers:
From the start of Season 31 to this point of Season 33:
Leaders are 52.63% in Final;
2nd place is incorrect 54.73% of the time;

Dating back to 2001 in regular play, and in four-fifths games:
2nd place “over-wagers” 47.91% of the time (390/814);
2nd place bets to take the lead by $1 5.53% of the time (45/814);
2nd place underbets (less than the difference between 1st and 2nd) 4.91% of the time (40/814).

Doing the calculations:
Big ($15,001):
Win if:
Correct (52.63%)
or both wrong & 2nd overbets (29.05% * 47.91% = 13.92%)
Chances: 66.55%

Small ($2):
Win if:
2nd incorrect (54.73%)
or 2nd underbets (4.91%)
or right and second bets to take lead by $1 (5.53% * 52.63% = 2.91%)
Chances: 62.55%

So, this bet, on its surface, lowers Seth’s winning chances slightly in this specific game.

However, an astute opponent waiting in the audience may notice Seth’s propensity to make a small bet and may make a sub-optimal wager in the future in light of this information, leading to a greater chance of victory down the round.

Due to the possibility of a heightened victory chance of future game cancelling out any lessened chances in this game, it is my conclusion that Seth’s $5 bet is far from any sort of egregious blunder, but a simple gambit that in this specific case failed to work out. Unfortunately, it ended a great streak at 12 games, but I applaud Seth’s willingness to take this chance. We’ll see him again, I’m sure, in the Tournament of Champions.

  • Go big or go home…

    I might react differently if the category had been “Opera” or “19th century French Lit”, but the “Economy” catagory hits my wheelhouse (future Jeopardy answer? lol)…

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