33rd Tournament of Champions – Quarter-Final Preview

Liam Starnes
Columbus, Ohio

144 correct, 22 incorrect
8/10 on rebound attempts (on 34 rebound opportunities)
34.09% in first on buzzer (136/399)
10/13 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $41,190)
3/7 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $15,600

Chance to make semifinals: 34.410%
Chance to make finals: 11.453%
Chance of overall victory: 3.697%

6-game champion Liam Starnes has not been given the best of draws in Tom and Aaron, but he does have recent quiz bowl experience, which should serve him well on the more difficult ToC material.

Tom Devlin
Washington, D.C.

113 correct, 11 incorrect
8/8 on rebound attempts (on 17 rebound opportunities)
46.49% in first on buzzer (106/228)
5/6 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $15,600)
2/4 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $21,700

Chance to make semifinals: 38.445%
Chance to make finals: 13.988%
Chance of overall victory: 5.186%

The last two Tournament of Champions winners only had 3 regular season wins, and the very strong Tom Devlin does feel like he’s the likeliest to make that three in a row. He’ll have to get through the quarterfinals to start with, and that’s no easy task.

Aaron Levine
Seattle, Washington

77 correct, 13 incorrect
3/3 on rebound attempts (on 24 rebound opportunities)
32.46% in first on buzzer (74/228)
6/9 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $12,700)
2/4 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $14,050

Chance to make semifinals: 27.145%
Chance to make finals: 7.905%
Chance of overall victory: 1.935%

History is also on Aaron’s side—I certainly remember past ToCs where the opening quarterfinal was taken in upset fashion by the bottom seed in the event. There’s lots of variance in this game and I would not be surprised in the slightest to see Aaron take victory.

Andrew Hayes
Tupelo, Mississippi

158 correct, 22 incorrect
9/10 on rebound attempts (on 28 rebound opportunities)
37.84% in first on buzzer (151/399)
7/12 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $14,200)
5/7 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $17,514

Chance to make semifinals: 32.809%
Chance to make finals: 10.974%
Chance of overall victory: 3.551%

I mentioned in my pre-taping preview that Andrew did catch some lucky breaks, but you have to be a good enough player to take advantage of those. Andrew will be a tough out in this event.

Brendan Liaw
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

95 correct, 19 incorrect
3/5 on rebound attempts (on 15 rebound opportunities)
44.74% in first on buzzer (102/228)
2/4 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$6,400)
1/3 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $17,750

Chance to make semifinals: 31.827%
Chance to make finals: 10.441%
Chance of overall victory: 3.349%

Brendan’s overall numbers in the prediction model weren’t helped by his missed Daily Double in the last game; he absolutely has the skill to make a deep run in this event. For those who don’t get the reference, the “away-from-home son” in his occupation is a reference to him being a “stay-at-home son” in his original run.

Allegra Kuney
New Brunswick, New Jersey

121 correct, 15 incorrect
4/5 on rebound attempts (on 14 rebound opportunities)
41.05% in first on buzzer (117/285)
7/9 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $15,100)
4/5 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $18,560

Chance to make semifinals: 35.364%
Chance to make finals: 12.640%
Chance of overall victory: 4.610%

Allegra very well could have won more than 4 games had she not run into superchamp Harrison Whitaker. That in and of itself makes her the favorite in this quarterfinal.

Bryce Wargin
Kansas City, Missouri

95 correct, 20 incorrect
7/9 on rebound attempts (on 27 rebound opportunities)
32.63% in first on buzzer (93/285)
6/8 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $13,600)
3/5 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $12,440

Chance to make semifinals: 30.411%
Chance to make finals: 9.521%
Chance of overall victory: 2.552%

His loss to Mike Dawson did hurt his numbers a little bit, but I expect Bryce to be very competitive in this quarterfinal.

Cameron Berry
Brighton, Massachusetts

126 correct, 21 incorrect
7/11 on rebound attempts (on 22 rebound opportunities)
36.55% in first on buzzer (125/342)
4/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $15,800)
2/6 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $14,867

Chance to make semifinals: 33.537%
Chance to make finals: 10.967%
Chance of overall victory: 3.431%

Cameron took the last spot in the Tournament of Champions after winning Champions Wildcard, and I expect he’ll be a part of an exciting Tournament of Champions quarterfinal here.

Ben Ganger
Goshen, Indiana

151 correct, 29 incorrect
15/18 on rebound attempts (on 36 rebound opportunities)
42.40% in first on buzzer (145/342)
9/11 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $23,200)
3/6 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $15,333

Chance to make semifinals: 36.052%
Chance to make finals: 12.791%
Chance of overall victory: 4.663%

Ben’s a slight favorite to take victory in the quarterfinals, but absolutely any of these three players could take victory in this one.

Ashley Chan
Lewisville, Texas

101 correct, 16 incorrect
1/2 on rebound attempts (on 12 rebound opportunities)
36.14% in first on buzzer (103/285)
5/7 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $8,500)
2/5 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $13,640

Chance to make semifinals: 30.856%
Chance to make finals: 9.345%
Chance of overall victory: 2.498%

While she did struggle at the end of her run, Ashley does have 4 wins—and she is more than capable of taking a fifth victory here in this ToC quarterfinal.

W. Kamau Bell
Oakland, California

90 correct, 13 incorrect
3/4 on rebound attempts (on 15 rebound opportunities)
35.71% in first on buzzer (90/252)
5/6 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $11,305)
1/3 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $15,300

Chance to make semifinals: 27.865%
Chance to make finals: 7.770%
Chance of overall victory: 1.759%

W. Kamau Bell is very smart and it absolutely would not surprise me to see him have a similar result to Ike Barinholtz two years ago.

Alex DeFrank
Brooklyn, New York

125 correct, 24 incorrect
4/7 on rebound attempts (on 18 rebound opportunities)
45.96% in first on buzzer (131/285)
5/6 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $21,800)
3/5 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $17,280

Chance to make semifinals: 41.279%
Chance to make finals: 15.455%
Chance of overall victory: 6.304%

Alex had some very impressive performances and also some very ordinary ones. As I said in the pre-taping preview, Alex’s tournament hopes revolve around “which Alex do we get here?”

Steven Olson
Princeton, Illinois

128 correct, 24 incorrect
3/6 on rebound attempts (on 15 rebound opportunities)
45.74% in first on buzzer (129/282)
10/12 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $17,200)
3/5 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $16,880

Chance to make semifinals: 36.969%
Chance to make finals: 13.747%
Chance of overall victory: 5.264%

Steven ended the run of Paolo Pasco, who’s seeded here into the semifinals. I’m sure Steven would love to see a rematch in the final.

Josh Weikert
Collegeville, Pennsylvania

161 correct, 23 incorrect
7/8 on rebound attempts (on 29 rebound opportunities)
40.10% in first on buzzer (160/399)
7/9 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $12,200)
2/7 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $17,914

Chance to make semifinals: 28.131%
Chance to make finals: 8.407%
Chance of overall victory: 2.230%

The Unified Prediction Model thinks Josh may have gotten a very difficult draw here in Steven and Matt. You don’t win 6 games unless you’re a very strong player, though.

Matt Massie
South Charleston, West Virginia

97 correct, 20 incorrect
5/6 on rebound attempts (on 17 rebound opportunities)
44.44% in first on buzzer (100/225)
5/7 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $17,200)
3/4 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $17,700

Chance to make semifinals: 34.900%
Chance to make finals: 12.366%
Chance of overall victory: 4.453%

Matt picked up a couple of big victories early in his run before losing stamina. That may end up helping his chances in this Tournament, where he doesn’t have to play a bunch of games back-to-back until the finals.

Lisa Ann Walter
Washington, D.C.

85 correct, 12 incorrect
8/10 on rebound attempts (on 22 rebound opportunities)
30.16% in first on buzzer (76/252)
6/8 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $5,900)
3/3 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $15,167

Chance to make semifinals: 28.575%
Chance to make finals: 7.232%
Chance of overall victory: 1.263%

It’s been a couple of years since Lisa Ann won on the Alex Trebek Stage; she finally gets to make her ToC appearance, and she has just as much of a chance of anyone to move on.

Mike Dawson
Portland, Oregon

80 correct, 11 incorrect
4/5 on rebound attempts (on 21 rebound opportunities)
35.09% in first on buzzer (80/228)
1/2 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: -$3,400)
2/4 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $15,050

Chance to make semifinals: 34.559%
Chance to make finals: 10.108%
Chance of overall victory: 2.451%

Much like Matt Massie, Mike’s numbers dropped the more he was on stage. That may end up helping him in the “one game on the tape day” quarterfinal.

TJ Fisher
San Francisco, California

150 correct, 30 incorrect
4/7 on rebound attempts (on 17 rebound opportunities)
45.03% in first on buzzer (154/342)
10/13 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $15,800)
1/6 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $18,133

Chance to make semifinals: 36.866%
Chance to make finals: 11.008%
Chance of overall victory: 2.899%

TJ would often dominate on the low-value clues. That usually hasn’t translated as well over to the ToC stage, where things are tougher. He’s also 1-for-6 in Final Jeopardy, which might also end up making for an interesting endgame.

Scott Riccardi
Somerville, New Jersey

464 correct, 32 incorrect
27/28 on rebound attempts (on 72 rebound opportunities)
43.45% in first on buzzer (421/969)
23/30 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $58,000)
12/17 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $23,047

Chance to make finals: 40.276%
Chance of overall victory: 18.677%

Both by his bye into the semifinals and the fact he has the strongest stats of anybody in the field, Scott is the outright favorite to take victory. On the flip side, Scott being the top seed will put a target on his back, especially in the semifinals.

Laura Faddah
Memphis, Tennessee

148 correct, 30 incorrect
13/13 on rebound attempts (on 41 rebound opportunities)
29.60% in first on buzzer (148/500)
5/8 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $3,400)
3/9 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $12,400

Chance to make finals: 25.894%
Chance of overall victory: 4.096%

Laura is an 8-time champion. While I suspect every winning quarterfinalist will end up hoping they get drawn against Laura in the semis, I would say those players are hoping at their peril. Players don’t win 8 times without having some sort of skill, and we’re going to see that skill in the ToC.

Paolo Pasco
San Diego, California

200 correct, 12 incorrect
10/10 on rebound attempts (on 30 rebound opportunities)
39.91% in first on buzzer (182/456)
10/12 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $25,600)
6/8 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $20,250

Chance to make finals: 37.712%
Chance of overall victory: 15.132%

Paolo is second favorite to take the $250,000 at this point; his skill with crosswords should play to his advantage at the ToC, especially in more difficult wordplay categories.