2017 Tournament Of Champions – Semifinals Predictions

Andrew Pau
Amherst, Ohio
188 correct, 13 incorrect
37.53% in first on buzzer (170/453)
11/11 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $32,800)
5/8 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $19,975
QF performance: 22 correct, 2 incorrect, $20,200 Coryat (net +7 low-level clues, net +13 high-level clues)

Austin Rogers
New York, New York
349 correct, 46 incorrect
41.48% in first on buzzer (326/786)
22/28 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $106,100)
13/14 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $17,700
QF performance: 14 correct, 3 incorrect, $11,400 Coryat (net +8 low-level clues, net +3 high-level clues)

Lilly Chin
Decatur, Georgia
102 correct, 12 incorrect
34.28% in first on buzzer (97/283)
8/8 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $17,200)
3/5 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $15,200
QF performance: 14 correct, 3 incorrect, $9,600 Coryat (net +6 low-level clues, net +5 high-level clues)

Prediction: I think it’s safe to actually say that after watching their respective quarterfinal performances, that Andrew Pau is at least a slight favorite in this match against Austin Rogers and Lilly Chin. Alan Lin absolutely demolished Austin in the quarterfinals, whereas Andrew had a much easier time of things (though Justin Vossler did give Andrew a bit of a challenge). Austin’s going to have to make some adjustments (his reticence in bouncing around compared to the rest of the field in the quarterfinals may work against him), but you can never really feel like you can count him out. I can’t see him being locked out two games in a row, and considering his record in Final Jeopardy, that could end up saving him. I’d consider it at least a moral victory if Lilly had enough money to have a chance of winning going into Final Jeopardy. If you could play this game 20 times, I would say that Andrew wins 12, Austin 7, and Lilly 1.

Buzzy Cohen
Los Angeles, California
228 correct, 39 incorrect
36.72% in first on buzzer (224/610)
13/18 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $21,600)
7/11 in Final Jeopardy!
Average Coryat: $14,309
QF performance: 21 correct, 3 incorrect, $16,400 Coryat (net +5 low-level clues, net +13 high-level clues)

Jason Sterlacci
Somerset, New Jersey
116 correct, 11 incorrect
37.54% in first on buzzer (107/285)
4/5 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $8,400)
3/5 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $18,560
QF performance: 17 correct, 0 incorrect, $17,400 Coryat (net +3 low-level clues, net +14 high-level clues)

Lisa Schlitt
Berwyn, Pennsylvania
172 correct, 20 incorrect
37.75% in first on buzzer (168/445)
9/12 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $17,100)
6/8 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $14,150
QF performance: 20 correct, 1 incorrect, $10,600 Coryat (net +12 low-level clues, net +7 high-level clues)

Prediction: The analytics here say that Jason is the clear favorite, but the analytics doesn’t keep track of “strength of victory”, as it were. Buzzy’s best game came against Andrew Pau, which tells me that the bigger the game, the better Buzzy plays. Lisa’s strength is definitely the top of the board, whereas Buzzy and Jason may be fighting for the bottom, which could make for an interesting game chart when this semifinal is done. As much as I think that Jason is awesome, I really don’t think that I can bet against Buzzy here. If you were to play this 20 times, I’d say that Buzzy wins 10, Jason 7, and Lisa 3.

Alan Lin
Riverside, California
176 correct, 17 incorrect
37.11% in first on buzzer (167/450)
9/12 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $18,205)
6/8 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $16,525
QF performance: 27 correct, 3 incorrect, $20,800 Coryat (net +10 low-level clues, net +14 high-level clues)

Pranjal Vachaspati
Urbana, Illinois
182 correct, 39 incorrect
42.11% in first on buzzer (184/437)
14/16 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $40,410)
5/8 in Final Jeopardy!
Average Coryat: $16,325
QF performance: 16 correct, 2 incorrect, $11,200 Coryat (net +7 low-level clues, net +7 high-level clues)

Tim Aten
Vermilion, Ohio
162 correct, 13 incorrect
29.29% in first on buzzer (145/495)
7/9 on Daily Doubles (Net Earned: $6,000)
5/9 in Final Jeopardy
Average Coryat: $12,355
QF performance: 21 correct, 1 incorrect, $14,000 Coryat (net +12 low-level clues, net +8 high-level clues)

Prediction: Both Alan and Pranjal are buzzer fiends. Alan absolutely demolished Austin Rogers on Wednesday, and I would imagine that Pranjal and Tim are hoping that doesn’t carry over, though I would say that Alan is definitely the most likely of any of the nine players to have a runaway in the semifinals, as his recent form is just that dominating. Pranjal may be forced into catch-up mode, and that may not bode well for him, especially considering that he has been known to make a lot of unforced errors. As for Tim? Considering his general style, though he was definitely better in the quarterfinals compared to his regular run in those matters, I think that Tim’s best chance may well be to hope Pranjal takes a lot of negs and cleans up the rebounds to stay in contention. If you play this 20 times, I say that Alan wins 14, Pranjal 4, and Tim 2.